Jan Holthuis Speaker at Economist’s 2019 Asia Business Outlook Survey briefing in Beijing

On Thursday February 28th, Jan was one of 5 speakers at the 2019 Asia Business Outlook Survey executive breakfast briefing in Beijing at China World Hotel. 

The event was one in a series of 6 held across Asia, and was organized by the Economist Corporate Network. Besides Jan 4 other speakers were invited, Susan Gao, Head of Consulting at CRU China, John Russell, Managing Director at North Head, Rachel Morarjee, Beijing Director at the Economist Corporate Network and David Rennie, Beijing Bureau Chef at The Economist.

Memorable about the discussion was an analysis made by David Rennie on the US-China trade war and Trump’s policy therein. Rennie, who resided in Washington DC from 2012 till 2018 and personally met Trump on two occasions in his capacity as columnist and Washington Bureau chief for Lexington, noted that: “In the eyes of China policy Trump thinks from a real estate developer's point of view: China is not paying enough rent for US market access”. He also noted that the present China containment strategy has a broad base in China and Europe now, and will not change after the presidency of Trump. 

According to the Asia Business Outlook Survey the expectations for business in Asia are still positive, despite uncertainties. 

3 main point that can be taken from the survey are:

1. The ‘Asia shift’ will continue, revenue growth expectations for most businesses in Asian countries are positive to very positive, even if there are also many uncertainties regarding governance.
2. Asian countries are developing at variable speeds, expected revenue growths in China, India and South-East Asia are strong, while they are much less strong in Asian counties with more mature economies such as Japan, South Korea, Hong-Kong/Macao and Australia/New Zealand. 
3. Although the US-China trade war obviously has some expected negative influence on the Chinese economy, only a slight majority of the respondents expect it to have a negative influence on Asia as a whole. This is mostly explained by the fact that the expectations for the influence of the US-China trade war will not have a very negative effect outside China, Hong Kong and Macao.